The Gartley Pattern is certainly one of the classic retracement patterns. It can offer the trader early entry with minimum risk into a potential longer term trend reversal. For short term day traders the pattern can be used effectively to buy and sell tests of highs and lows on an intraday basis. Gartley said to buy or sell the first AB=CD in a new bear or bull market and that is what this pattern can achieve along with entries into an already established trend. A major reversal may not always follow with this pattern but even so the trader can still gain profits using good trade management skills assuming the pattern was not a failure pattern.
The Gartley “222” pattern is named for the page number it is found on in H.M. Gartley’s book, Profits in the Stock Market. Since then, multiple books have been written describing the Gartley “222” pattern and charting software that applies it.
Of the almost 500 pages in H.M. Gartley’s book, none are more important than pages 221 and 222. This is where the author described this particular pattern in greater detail than any of the other patterns in his book. Gartley referred to it as one of the best trading opportunities. The most revealing part of the Gartley pattern is somewhat hidden on page 222 under figure 27 in the book as Larry discovered.
The greatest challenge with these two pages was trying to interpret the description of this pattern as it was not as clear as one might expect. The biggest question that came to mind was the discrepancy between the two patterns listed under Figure 27 in Gartley’s book. Refer to Figure 1.
The figure labeled A shows a simple retracement in a downtrend but if you look closely at the figure labeled B this shows a more complex correction in an uptrend using the addition of the AB=CD that was shown in his Parallel Channel Pattern. Refer to Figure 2.
Figure 3 – Gartley Buy and Sell Patterns
These distinct differences lead to the Gartley “222” Pattern that we know today. This provided a clearer picture of what the pattern was all about, realizing this element lead to a breakthrough after many attempts to understand the concept.
The next step in the development of this pattern was the addition of the mathematical relationships of Sacred Geometry (which includes the Fibonacci Summation Series). Adding the Fibonacci Ratios to this pattern gave the Pattern Recognition Swing Trader the tools to determine price entry, exit points and stop levels for risk control. The final step was empirically and statistically testing the validity of these patterns. Gartley had emphasized that the pattern was correct approximately 70% of the time. Testing weekly, daily and intraday patterns over the past 40 years has proven that Gartley’s original premise was indeed accurate.
Larry had also uncovered the fact that while Gartley describes both buy and sell patterns identically, he had different diagrams for each. It was the AB=CD pattern within the sell Gartley Pattern that lead to the nickname of the pattern as the Gartley “222”. Refer to Figure 3.
Gartley also used ratios of one third and two thirds with this pattern but did not use ratios from the Fibonacci summation series. The main Fibonacci retracement ratios that we apply to the Gartley pattern include: .382 (used with strong trends), .50, .618 and .786. As mentioned in the Pattern Structure section below of this chapter the 1.00 is used and is a double top or bottom. Refer to Figure 4.
Gartley stated in his 1935 masterpiece that over a 30 year period he found these patterns to be profitable in 7 out of 10 cases. The statistics validating this are still the same as Gartley suggested over 60 years ago.
It is important to know what invalidates the Gartley “222” pattern.
Here are 3 items that invalidate the pattern:
1. The D completion point can not exceed X.
2. The C leg can not exceed A. C can be a 1.00 or double top or double bottom of X, this is a rare pattern but it is valid.
3. The B leg can not exceed X.
The Gartley pattern can be broken down into four segments which relate to the labeling of the swings. Point X is the high or low point of the swing and is the starting point of the pattern. The X can be found on longer time frames at major highs or lows. However, the X can also sometimes be found as a top or bottom within a larger trend, in other words the pattern can form within a larger swing or leg without the X being a major top or bottom.
The X point becomes the fulcrum or anchor price that all technical traders watch daily. After point X is formed and the market begins to move in one direction the XA leg begins to form, at this stage it is impossible to determine where the completion of the XA leg may be. There are certain characteristics of how this first swing embarks that give clues to the length and thrust of the XA leg: If there are gaps, wide range bars and tail closes in the direction of the trend this leg may take some time before a correction takes place.
Once it has been determined that the XA leg is complete then the next step is to watch the formation of the AB leg. This leg is the first reaction up or down from the initial impulse wave from X. The key items to watch in this formation are:
• The Fibonacci retracement ratio the market corrects to.
• The number of bars that form the leg.
• The similarities in slope and thrust
For example, if the AB leg takes a considerable amount of time, more than 8 to 10 bars to form of the XA leg, then we would assume that the market is basing for a larger correction, potentially to the .618, .786 or further.
As price begins to turn down or up from B it is important to note that the pattern would be invalid if the BC leg exceeded X.
It is possible for the completion point of this leg at C to be an exact double bottom or top of the X point and that is still a valid pattern, but if price at C exceeded X the pattern would then be invalid and would negate this pattern. See Figures 4 and 5.
It is important to remember that the majority of traders will not be initiating trades at exact tops and bottoms the majority of the time but the Gartley pattern offers the trader a retracement entry into the trend at low risk trading points and with quantified risk levels.
Larry Pesavento is a veteran of over 40 years in trading. He is a former member of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange where he traded S&P futures and Foreign Currency. He also traded at the prestigious Commodity Corporation of Princeton New Jersey. He also managed Drexil Burham Lambert Commodity Department in Beverly Hills, California. Larry’s library of books and trading systems has been accumulated over the past 5 decades. Larry has written 9 books on trading ranging in subjects from Astro Harmonic phenomena, Pattern Recognition swing trading and Artificial Intelligence. He currently trades for a Hedge Fund and mentors private students on a one on one basis only. Larry can be reached at larry@tradingtutor.com or via his website www.tradingtutor.com.
二十世纪前叶美国形态技术分析的先驱 H.M.Gartley 早在 1935 年就已推出震撼投资界的形态分析力作《股市利润》 (“Profits in the Stock Market”) ，以每本 1,500 美元的天价限量售出 1,000 册，以当时正处于经济大萧条时期美国的购买力，这本书可以买到三辆全新的福特汽车！全书厚达 700 多页，其最为精华的部分出现在第 222 页，这就是被誉为具备最佳时间与价格形态的短线交易技术 Gartley“222” ！
该项技 术原理其实相当简单，以一个上升的 “222” 形态为例，首先价格出现一轮回升 ( 由 X 点升至 A 点 ) ，然后展开由 A 、 B 、 C 、 D 四点所组成的回调，结构上必须满足这样的比率： AD=(0.618)AX ， D=B+C-A ，如此一来便构成完美的 Gartley"222" 价格形态，可以在 D 点买进，分享短期的突破性上升。
Gartley 基本价格形态之一、二
H.M.Gartley 的经典价格形态自 1935 年面世至今逾六十载仍历久常新，其极其看重价格与时间同时呈现和谐比例的价格形态内涵每时每刻都在投资市场上重复演绎着，并且不断被后继者发展创新，但基 本结构一直未变。著名的 “ 蝴蝶转向 ” 形态就是由知名的技术分析专家 Larry Pesavento 在数十年投资生涯中将 Gartley“222” 形态发挥得淋漓尽致的硕果，我们将结合沪深股市个股的实际走势，对 Gartley 最著名的十种基本价格形态逐一倾力推介，务求与投资者分享经典形态分析的精华。
Gartley 基本价格形态一是由 A 、 B 、 C 、 D 四点所构成的之字型结构所体现 (Gartley 基本价格形态二结构相同，方向相反 ) ，其中 AB 线与 CD 线在 60% 的情况下无论是价格升幅还是所运行时间均趋于相等，同时 BC 线回调 AB 线升幅的 0.618 至 0.786 之间，当 AB 线升势较为强劲的情况下， BC 线可能仅回调 AB 线的 0.382 ，另外，在 40% 的情况下，当 CD 线运行期间若出现跳空缺口或很宽的价格波幅时，可以预期 CD 线的升幅将相当于 AB 线的 1.27 或 1.618 。
Gartley 基本价格形态之三、四
H.M.Gartley 基本价格形态之三、四就是最著名的 Gartley“222” 上升与下跌形态，因其出现在《股市利润》一书中的第 222 页而得名， Gartley 用了最多的篇幅来详细描述这一形态，由于 “222” 形态总是在价格趋势见顶或见底之后才出现，因此追随它的投资者不必冒险去逃顶或抄底！而且同样由 X 、 A 、 B 、 C 、 D 五个点构成的价格形态包含 AB=CD 的条件，使得投资者能够事先计算出相应的获利 (A 点之上 ) 与止损位置 (X 点 ) ，这一点对于从事短线交易尤其重要，即市分时走势中的 “222” 形态广泛应用于期货与外汇市场。
以一个上升的 “222” 形态为例， AD 线回调 XA 线的幅度，有 75% 的机会介乎 0.618 与 0.786 之间，另有 25% 的机会回调幅度为 0.382 、 0.5 或 0.707 ，期间的 AB 线与 CD 线应当趋于相等， BC 线通常反弹 AB 线的 0.618 或 0.786 ，若 AB 线下跌趋势较为强劲则 BC 线反弹幅度可能只有 0.382 。另外， XA 线与 AD 线所运行的时间也应存在和谐的比例，例如，若 XA 线需要 17 天的话，则 AD 线可能需要 11 天左右，这样在运行时间方面两段走势的比率为 1 ： 0.618 。在不常见的情况下，上升 “222” 形态有可能出现失败走势，只要形态的起点 X 被击穿，则可以预期 AD 线的走势将至少会持续到相当于 XA 线幅度的 1.27 或 1.618 ，止损之后可以立即反手沽空。
Gartley 基本价格形态之五、六
H.M.Gartley 基本价格形态之五、六属于在能够事先确认市场运行趋势的前提下，捕捉 ( 上升趋势中的 ) 回调低点买进或 ( 下跌趋势中的 ) 反弹高点卖出的短线波动交易形态，这两种价格形态都由 X 、 1 和 A 三个点所组成，其中由 X 点至 A 点所需时间介乎于 5 至 13 天之间 ( 以下均以日线图为例 ) ，在极罕见的情形下也会出现 21 天的运行时间，这些运行时间都属于 Fibonacci 数列的数字，同时在 1 点至 A 点之间不能出现明显的波动形态 ( 否则就变成了 Gartley“222” 的价格形态 ) ， 1A 线通常回调 XA 线的 0.618 或 0.786 ，如果从 X 点至 1 点价格走势相当凌厉的话 ( 仅需 3 到 5 天即完成 ) ，则 1A 的回调幅度可能只有 0.382 。只要从 1 点至 A 点的运行时间不超过 8 天，则可以预期在 0.618 或 0.786( 强势则为 0.382) 的回调位置将会出现反方向的戏剧性走势！投资者所冒受的风险为 A 点与 X 点之间的价格差，而赢利的空间为短时间内迅速突破 1 点的快速波幅！
由 于 Gartley 在介绍基本价格形态的时候并没有同时说明如何事先确认趋势，使得孤立运用这类价格形态的风险徒增！根据我们的实际使用经验，目前在技术分析中经常用到的平 滑异同移动平均线 MACD 或抛物线转向 Parabolic 在确认市场运行趋势方面作用显著：当价格经过充分下跌且 MACD 开始进入上升状态 ( 快线位于慢线之上 ) ，投资者就可以在价格第一轮冲高回落之际应用 Gartley 基本价格形态之五 ( 反之则应用之六 ) 在 0.618 或 0.786 的回调位置建仓，分享随后的快速上升！
Gartley 基本价格形态之七、八
H.M.Gartley 基本价格形态之七、八属于一种价格走势出现延伸 ( 击穿低点或突破高点 ) 之后趋势发生逆转 ( 调头回升或调头下跌 ) 的短期价格波动形态，以属于见底回升的价格形态之七为例，该形态由 X 、 1 、 A 三个点构成，其中由 X 点至 A 点所需时间介乎于 5 至 13 天 ( 均为 Fibonacci 数字 ) ，也有少数情形为 21 天，假如 1A 线等于 XA 线幅度的 1.27 或 1.618 的话，则可以预期价格将在 A 点见底回升，从 1 点至 A 点的长度就是反弹可能出现的幅度。如果所进行的是期货交易或股票当日回转交易的话，则这种短线形态不容忽视，因为 X 点通常就是当天的开盘价格，为短线炒家提供了一个捕捉即日买进或卖出的良机。
Gartley基本价格形态之九、十
H.M.Gartley 基本价格形态之九、十属于较为少见但又十分容易辨认的短期转向形态，以见顶转向的形态之九为例，形态是由三个逐渐抬高的顶点所组成，其中A2线与1A线、 C3线与2C线无论是波幅还是运行时间均呈现1.27或1.618的和谐比例关系，而且整个形态过程中不能出现跳空的缺口(否则还需要进一步的形态确 认)，在正常的价格波动情况下，1A线和2C线通常回吐上一段波幅的0.618或0.786。
No comments:
Post a Comment